Barack Obama
But could he deliver?
他能得到选票吗？
Feb 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition
It is time for America to evaluate Obama the potential president, not Obama the phenomenon
THIS has been an extraordinary week for the man who could become America's first black president.
Barack Obama has now won all eight of the primaries and caucuses held since Super Tuesday on
February 5th, which ended, more or less, in a dead heat with Hillary Clinton. He has won by much larger
margins than most people expected, trouncing his rival not just in heavily black states, such as
Louisiana, but in ones that are almost completely white, such as Maine. On February 12th he took all
three prizes in the “Potomac primary”—Washington, DC, Maryland and, by a socking 29-point margin,
Virginia.
是时候再次评估奥巴马将会是潜在的总统，而不只是一种现象。这个可能成为美国首位黑人总统的男人刚刚经历了非常的一周。巴拉克·奥巴马已经赢得了自2月5日那个超级星期二举行的政党秘密会议后的所有八个初选，这一结果可以说终结了他与希拉里·克林顿之间不分胜负的较量。他赢得了比大多数人想象中更多的边缘选票，不仅仅在像路易斯安那那样的黑人州，同样在几乎绝大多数是白人居住的缅因州，痛击了他的对手。在2月12日，他在华盛顿的“波托马克”，马克兰，以及成功得到29%边缘选票的维吉尼亚赢得了所有的三项奖项。
Mr Obama now has more pledged delegates than his rival—and he is likely to remain the front-runner for
at least another three weeks (see article). Revealingly, Mrs Clinton made her Virginian concession speech
from Texas—a state which votes alongside Ohio on March 4th and is already being billed as her last
stand. Mr Obama is raising money at the rate of $1m a day, twice as fast as she is; indeed, she has been
forced to lend her campaign $5m of her own cash and fire the two people who run her campaign
(although her husband has a big say).
奥巴马先生现在比他的对手许下更多保证-他很可能至少在接下来的三周仍保持领先地位(作者观点)。有启发作用的是，克林顿夫人在3月4日投票，选民靠近俄亥俄州，并已作为她最后阵地的得克萨斯州作了在维吉尼亚让步的演说。奥巴马募集资金的速度是每天一千万，两倍于克林顿夫人，事实上克林顿夫人已经被迫从她自己的现金中拿出五千万来支持竞选，并解雇了两名为她运作竞选的工作人员（尽管他的丈夫有更夸大的说法）。
Whatever happens, Mr Obama is already that rare thing—a political phenomenon. It is not just that he
has managed to survive the Clintons' crude onslaught with grace. He has persuaded huge numbers of
people around the world to reconsider politics in an optimistic way. To many Americans, a black man who
eschews both racial politics and the conservative-liberal divide is a chance to heal the country's two
deepest divisions. To many foreigners, he represents an idealistic version of America—the hope of a more
benevolent superpower. Although Mr Obama's slogan “Yes We Can” has been turned into a pop video,
the theme of his campaign echoes the Clintons' old tune—“Don't stop thinking about tomorrow”.
不管发生了什么，奥巴马已经成就了一件罕见的事，一个新的政治现象。这已仅仅是他以他的优雅应对来自克林顿夫妇粗鲁的攻击，并得以幸存。他已经说服了来自世界各地数目巨大的人们他会以乐观的态度重新考虑政策。对许多美国人来说，一个能同时避开人种问题，保守分裂问题的黑人将成为弥补这个国家最深两道裂痕的契机。在很多外国人看来，他代表了一种理想主义的美国-一个更加慈善的超级大国的希望。尽管奥巴马的口号“是的我们可以”已经进入流行影视，他的竞选主题模仿了克林顿的老言辞“不要停止思考明天”。
Optimism is a powerful emotion, but as that song warned, “tomorrow will soon be here.” That is why the
real questioning of Mr Obama should begin now. With the brief exception of those four heady days after
the Iowa caucuses, he has never been a front-runner; now he will be more fully scrutinised. The
immediate focus will be on the horse race: can he win? But the bigger issue, which has so far occupied
too little attention, is this: what would a President Obama, as opposed to Phenomenon Obama, really
mean for America and the world?
乐观主义只一种强大的情感，但就像那首歌里所警告的“明天将很快到来”这就是为什么对于奥巴马真正的问题现在就要开始。除了爱荷华政党密会后顽固的四天这一短暂的例外，他还没有作为领先者出现，但现在他将进行更为全面的核查。即刻的焦点将关注到这场比赛上，他能赢吗？但一个长时间没有引起关注的更大争论是，作为奥巴马现象的相反面？？，对美国和世界来说是有意义的吗？??
Yes, you can; but not immediately
是的，你可以，但不是现在
Begin with the horse race. Mrs Clinton is in a bad way—and deservedly so. The Clintons have fought a
EPA leaden and nasty campaign; at present, the prospect of a “Billary presidency” (even before you take into
account the dynastic Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton aspect) is hardly enthralling. But Mrs Clinton is tough
and smart, and now her rival will be under the media microscope. In debates she trumps Mr Obama on
mastery of detail—and the race could well be a long, grinding one, perhaps decided in the end by the 796
“super delegates” from the Democratic Party's establishment. These people have tended to be loyal to
the Clintons—though many might defect if polls still showed Mr Obama doing better against John McCain.
Mr McCain, whose lock on the Republican nomination looks stronger than ever following his own triple
victory in the Potomac primary, is another part of tomorrow Mr Obama's euphoric supporters might think
about. The Republicans are a mess, and the elderly Arizonan senator has plainly failed to stir up his
party's supporters in the same way as either of the main Democrats. But Mr McCain is a brave man, with
huge experience of international affairs and a much longer record of reaching out to his opponents in
politics. Why should independent voters, who have often backed Mr McCain in the past, turn to the less
proven man?
在这场比赛的开始，克林顿夫人就已经在一条差劲的路上了-理所应当是这样。克林顿夫妇进行了一场EPA一样沉闷肮脏的竞选，目前，“比尔任期”的期望很难让人心动（？？）。但是克林顿夫人是强硬和聪明的，现在她的对手将暴露在媒体的显微镜下。在辩论中她在细节的熟练控制方面胜过奥巴马-这场竞争将变得旷日持久，可能最终还要靠民主党创立的769个“超级代表”的决定来结束。这些人已经倾向于向克林顿夫妇表示忠诚-尽管会有很多的缺陷如果如果投票仍然显示奥巴马在对抗乔治·麦克恩上表现的更好。依赖于共和党任命的麦克恩看上去要比他在波拖马可河的初选胜利还要三倍的强势。他将是奥巴马今后可以考虑的另一个感到欣快的支持者。共和党内一片混乱，年长的Arizonan议员应经明显的在通过与主要民主党人类似的道路寻找党内支持者的方法已经失败。但是麦凯恩是一个勇敢的人，在国际形势上有丰富的经验并且与他的对手相比有更多的业绩。
Of magnets and magic dust
That question is partly answered by Obama the phenomenon. His immediate effect on international
relations could be dramatic: a black president, partly brought up in a Muslim country, would transform
America's image. And his youthful optimism could work at home too. After the bitterness of the Bush
years, America needs a dose of unity: Mr Obama has a rare ability to deliver it. And the power of
charisma should not be underrated, especially in the context of the American presidency which is,
constitutionally, quite a weak office. The best presidents are like magnets below a piece of paper,
invisibly aligning iron filings into a new pattern of their making. Anyone can get experts to produce policy
papers. The trick is to forge consensus to get those policies enacted.
有魔力和磁力的灰尘
这一问题被奥巴马部分的回答了。他在国际关系上的立竿见影是那么的戏剧化：一个黑人总统，部分时间在穆斯林城市长大，将会改变美国的对外印象。并且他年轻的乐观主义在国内同样可以奏效。在历经了布什年代的辛酸，美国需要一剂统一的良药：奥巴马有罕见的能力去达成这一点。并且感召的力量是不能被低估的，特别是在美国承前启后的总统任期里天生虚弱的政府。最好的总统一张纸下的磁铁，隐形的将落下的铁粒调整成他们所想的形状。任何人都能让专家去制定一纸政令。关键在于让大家达成一致意见让政令得以实施。
But what policies exactly? Mr Obama's voting record in the Senate is one of the most left-wing of any
Democrat. Even if he never voted for the Iraq war, his policy for dealing with that country now seems to
amount to little more than pulling out quickly, convening a peace conference, inviting the Iranians and
the Syrians along and hoping for the best. On the economy, his plans are more thought out, but he often
tells people only that they deserve more money and more opportunities. If one lesson from the wasted
Bush years is that needless division is bad, another is that incompetence is perhaps even worse. A man
who has never run any public body of any note is a risk, even if his campaign has been a model of
discipline.
但什么样的规则是正确的？奥巴马在上议院的投票记录代表他是大多数左派共和党人中的一个。即使他从来没有投票给伊拉克战争过，他如何制定这个国家的政策看上去似乎相对于度过难关，吸引伊朗人和叙利亚人加入和谈并达成最好结果相比没有太大的价值。在经济上，他的计划似乎是经过彻底思考过的，但他常常只告诉人们他们应该得到更多的钱和机会。如果从浪费的布什年代中得到这样的教训，不必要的分割就是不好的，另一个就是要是不适当的话可能更差。一个从来没有运营过一个有名望的公共团体的人是有风险的，即使他的竞选已经成为一种规范样本。
And the Obama phenomenon would not always be helpful, because it would raise expectations to undue
heights. Budgets do not magically cut themselves, even if both parties are in awe of the president; the
Middle East will not heal, just because a president's second name is Hussein. Choices will have to be
made—and foes created even when there is no intention to do so. Indeed, something like that has
already happened in his campaign. The post-racial candidate has ended up relying heavily on black votes
(and in some places even highlighting the divide between Latinos and blacks).
None of this is to take away from Mr Obama's achievement—or to imply that he could not rise to the
challenges of the job in hand. But there is a sense in which he has hitherto had to jump over a lower bar
than his main rivals have. For America's sake (and the world's), that bar should now be raised—or all
kinds of brutal disappointment could follow.
奥巴马现象可能不能总是帮上忙，因为他将使期望值上升到一个不恰当的高度。预算不可能魔法般的被自己削减，即使两个政党都对总统感到望而生畏，中东问题不会因为总统的第二个名字是Hussein而解决。选择将要被作出-反对者总是会有，即使没有任何意图去反对。事实上，类似的事情在他的选举中已经有所发生。这个有人种象征的候选人已经结束了大量依靠黑人选票的状况（在有些地方甚至强调了拉丁美洲和黑人的区别）。
这些都不能从奥巴马的成果中抹去-或者暗示他可能不能经起他手中工作的挑战。但能感觉到他已经越过了比他的主要对手更低的门槛。为了美国（以及全世界），门槛现在应该会被提高-不然令人不能想象的失望将接踵而来。

Credit-rating agencies
Restructured products
这篇太专业了，看不懂。翻出来更是莫名其妙。

Feb 7th 2008 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
来自《经济学家》印刷版
A beleaguered industry looks to reform itself
一个被围困的产业看上去似乎要自我改革了
HOUNDING credit-rating agencies has become the bloodsport of choice for moneymen. At a conference
this week one speaker announced, to raucous laughter, that he had just received a news flash: “Moody's
has downgraded Fitch, Fitch has cut Moody's in retaliation, and Standard & Poor's has put itself on
negative watch.”
HOUNDING信用等级代理已经变成金融人士做活血运动选择。在本周的一次会议上一个与会者沙哑的笑着发言道，他刚刚得到了一个新消息：Moody‘s 降低了Fitch信用等级，Fitch作为报复也对Moody’s进行了削减，而Standard & Poor's将自己摆到旁观者的位置。
Politicians and regulators are on the chase, too. Financial regulators, meeting in Amsterdam this week,
said they would review a code of conduct for rating agencies, with a view to improving disclosure and
clamping down on agencies that give advice on the creation of securities they rate.
政治家和管理者也在竞相追逐。本周在阿姆斯特丹召开的经济管理者会议，声明说他们将要以加强揭露和向代理们施压的观点来重新回顾代理评定的准则以此为证券费率的创造提供一些建议？？？。
The agencies feel that criticism of their role in the crisis was, in part, based on a misunderstanding: their
ratings are based on risk of default, not market swings. But, as mortgage delinquencies rise, even they
now admit that they were wrong-footed, and that the golden ratings they awarded to many mortgagelinked
“structured” products were flimsy, particularly those of collateralised-debt obligations.
那些代理们感觉对他们在危机中角色的批判是建立在他们的信用等级风险是固定不变而非随着市场波动这样的误解上的片面看法。但是，抵押拖欠的行为正在增长，就算现在他们承认有步数走错了，那些他们提供给黄金等级的许多抵押相关的“结构性”物资是脆弱的，特别是那些间接抵押的债务。
In an effort to head off draconian new rules, the agencies have begun to think about changing the way
they do business. On February 4th Moody's said it was considering a new rating system for structured
securities, using numbers, not letters, and a suffix that would indicate the expected level of volatility.
Not to be outdone, S&P was due on February 7th to unveil more than two dozen reforms. New committees
will oversee governance and modelling and will be reviewed periodically by an outside firm. Information on
non-default factors, including liquidity (whatever that is), will be attached to ratings. Like Moody's, S&P
may introduce separate tags for securitised products and will analyse the effects of unexpected events.
“We need to be clear about what traditional ratings do and don't do. Increasingly people have inferred
more than was intended to be conveyed,” says Deven Sharma, S&P's president.
为了努力阻止新规则，代理们已经开始思考改变他们经营的方式。在2月4号，Moody‘s声称已经在考虑一种新的等级系统来保证结构化的证券,利用数字而不是字母，并且加以一个后缀用以指明预期的变化水平。为了不被超过，S&P在2月7日公开了超过24项改革。新的沟通机制将监督管理，模型化，并将周期性的接受外部公司的审查。非常规因素的信息，包括流动性（无论是什么）将与等级挂钩。像Moody's，S&P可能会为证券化的产品引进独立的标签并将监控未知事件的影响。“我们需要更清晰的认识什么增加等级什么不。日益增长的人们已经能够从被确定传达的信息中推断出更多。
Such stabs at self-healing may not placate everyone. Some point to more profound concerns: because
ratings are deeply embedded in financial regulation, the agencies have been handed an oligopoly; they
suffer a conflict of interest, because they are paid by the issuers of the securities they rate, not by
investors; and they are unaccountable because their ratings are deemed mere opinions and thus
protected as free speech.
这样的在自我治愈过程中的伤痛可能不能至于每个人。一些人指向一些更深层次的关注：因为等级是深入于金融调节中的，那些代理已经掌握了垄断，他们经受利益冲突，因为他们收入来源于他们估价的证券发行人，而不是投资人，并且他们没有责任因为他们的信用评价被认为仅仅是意见所以像言论自由一样被保护。
None of these issues is easy to resolve. Switching to an investor-pays system might seem the obvious
solution, but it is not clear that enough investors would cough up to make the business viable. Some,
perhaps many, would hitch a free ride as ratings leaked.
没有一项争论是能简单的被解决的。选择一个投资人支付报酬的系统可能是一个显而易见的解决方法，但是能不能有足够的投资人让商业勉为其难的进行并不清楚。有一些，也可能不少，会搭信用评价漏洞的免费车。
In any case, agencies can reasonably claim to be tackling their conflicts. Moody's and S&P have built
stronger walls between their analysts and salespeople. Both have vowed to review any rating issued by an
employee who leaves to work for a client. “Whoever pays, there will be a conflict,” says Brian Clarkson,
president of Moody's. “The key is to manage it.”
无论如何，代理们能适度的要求暂时搁下他们之间的利益冲突。Moody’s和S&P已经在他们的分析师和交易员之间建立起了一道更为牢固的屏障。双方都发誓复审任何委托人的有争议的信用等级问题。“无论谁付工资，都会有冲突”Moody‘s的主席Brian Clarkson这样说，“关键在于对其的管理。”
More competition should help, but it might just as easily lead to a race to the bottom, as agencies vie to
offer the best terms to issuers. Making agencies legally liable for their opinions, meanwhile, would scare
them out of the business.
更多的竞争可能有所帮助，但是那也可能仅仅是简单的将竞赛引向终点。代理们仍然竞相向发行人提供最优惠的条件。要让代理们合法的为他们的观点负责任，必须以让他们离开商业为威胁。
The most appealing reform, in theory, would be to end the regulatory dependence on ratings and let
investors draw their own conclusions from “expert” opinions and market data, as they do with shares.
(Even the agencies themselves believe investors should be placing more emphasis on other indicators,
such as derivatives prices.) But ratings are so pervasive that it is hard to see this being accomplished
without great dislocation.
在理论上，最吸引人的改革将是结束把信用等级作为调整依据取而代之让投资者自行从“专家”意见和市场数据中得到结论（甚至代理们相信投资者们应当更多的强调其它的指示象一些派生的价格）。但是信用等级是那样的深入人心使得不经历大的改变很难看到这种改革的成效。
A more practical approach might be to let the agencies get on with their house-cleaning while introducing
a reform borrowed from the accounting industry: a board, made up of industry types, investors and
academics, charged with policing the agencies' analytical techniques and governance. Rating firms have
embraced change, but they will need help convincing the world that they mean it.
一个更实际的途径可能是在引进一个会计业改革的同时让代理们继续自己内部的清理。一个由各种工业类型所组的董事会，投资人，学院人士控告代理们的分析技术和管理。等级公司已经在拥护了，但他们仍然需要帮助去说服那个他们所谓的圈子。

Suicide-bombers

Just what are they dreaming of?

Feb 7th 2008
From The Economist print edition
来自《经济学家》印刷版
Religion is not always the reason
宗教并非总是原因
THE list of causes and countries in which people are prepared to turn themselves, and those around them, into bloody piles of bone and gristle is long and growing. In Sri Lanka on February 3rd, a woman on a platform
at Colombo's main railway station blew herself up, killing at least 15 people, including seven schoolboys and their sports coach. The next day, Israel saw its first suicide attack for more than a year: at a mall in
Dimona, a Palestinian put an abrupt end to his own life, and that of an elderly Israeli woman. As rescuers tended to an unconscious youth who appeared to be a wounded victim, they noticed—just in time—that he too
was wearing an explosives belt. Meanwhile in the Pakistani garrison town of Rawalpindi, where Benazir Bhutto was slain in December, a human bomb on a motorcycle rammed into a military bus, killing at least ten people.
无论是原因还是那些人们准备将他们自己和他们周围的人变成片片血肉的城市都长久有之并在不断增长。2月3日在斯里兰卡首都科伦坡的一个主要火车站台引爆了自己，造成了至少十五人的死亡，包括七名学生和他们的体育教练。第二天，以色列见证了它一年多以来的首次自杀性袭击。在Dimona的一个购场，一个巴基斯坦人突然的结束了他自己以及一名年长的以色列妇女的生命。救援人员注意到一个不省人事的年轻人似乎是一个受害者，但就在这个时候他们发现他身上同样捆绑了爆炸物。与此同时，在十二月贝布托总统遇刺身亡巴基斯坦的要塞城市Rawalpindi，一个人肉炸弹骑着摩托车冲向一辆军事车辆，造成了至少十人的死亡。
There is almost always something mysterious about suicide: a gap
between everything that was ever said by or known about the selfdestroyer
(even by his family), and the silence that remains. In the case
of politically inspired suicide, the motives are at once more obvious and
more elusive. Just why are terrorists, often promising young men (or
increasingly, women) with much to live for, willing to kill themselves as
well as others? It is exactly eight years since the first international conference on suicide terrorism was
convened in Israel; since then, dozens of security pundits have been searching for new answers to the
question.
自杀袭击总是笼罩着一些神秘，得不到自杀袭击者的任何信息（甚至从他们的家庭），留下的只有寂静（自杀袭击者所说的或被了解的一切与他留下的沉默之间存在巨大的鸿沟）。因为这样的自杀式袭击有政治上的授意，使得这样的行动立刻显得更加的显而易见和难以捉摸。仅仅是为什么这些恐怖分子，通常是生活有希望有前途年轻人（或是日益增加的女人），愿意牺牲自己和他人牺牲自。自第一次就自杀式恐怖袭击在以色列举办的会议至今刚好八年。自那时起，不少的安全专家就在为这个问题寻找一个新的答案。
At the time of that meeting in 2000, the secessionist Tamil Tigers, waging war in Sri Lanka, were the most
prolific users of suicide tactics. Since then there has been a change. While Tamil nationalists are still at
large, the locus of suicide-bombing has shifted to the Muslim world, and most perpetrators—whether they
are fighting local wars, or a global campaign against America and its allies—have claimed to be acting in the
name of Islam. The practice spread from the Hizbullah fighters of Lebanon to Hamas and other Palestinian
groups—and thence to the killing fields of Iraq and Afghanistan. That prompts some Westerners to assert a
link between Islam—especially Shia Islam, with its stress on martyrdom—and readiness for self-destruction.
But scholars who comb the available data about suicide attacks are often sceptical about religion's role.
2000年那次会议的时候，在斯里兰卡发动战争的分裂论者Tamil Tigers是自杀式袭击策略最多的使用者。从那时起就已经产生了变化。在Tamil民族主义者还没有被逮捕，自杀性袭击的地点却转移到了穆斯林世界，并且大部分的犯罪者-无论是他们为了赢得一场地区战争或是在全球对抗美国和他的同盟，都声称以伊斯兰教的名义。这样的实验从黎巴嫩的Hizbullah战斗者传播到哈马斯以及其他巴勒斯坦派别-从此以后延伸到伊拉克和阿富汗。这加速了一些西方人断言，伊斯兰-特别是面临牺牲压力的Shia伊斯兰-和自杀准之间有所联系。但是学者搜寻关于自杀式袭击的档案常常怀疑其中宗教扮演的角色。
Robert Pape, of the University of Chicago, has identified three factors that make suicide terrorism probable.
It is likely to occur when a community feels it is under occupation that must be resisted; when the
“occupier” is a democratic society whose opinion can be swayed; and where there is a sectarian difference
between the perpetrators' community and the target community. In his view, religious differences help to
make suicide attacks conceivable, but they are not the main driver. Nichole Argo, a researcher at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, agrees that religion's role is limited. What counts is a background of
support for the idea of insurgency: a sense among self-annihilators that their peers will see them as heroes.
Nor is religious indoctrination a big factor, Ms Argo insists; only a fraction of the alumni of hard-line
madrassas in Pakistan and Indonesia engage in violence. Material deprivation is not decisive either; many
suicide-bombers are from comfortable backgrounds.
芝加哥大学的Robert Pape，找出了三个可能造成自杀式恐怖袭击的因素。自杀袭击在这样的情况下可能发生，当一个集体面临被占有而必须抵抗，“占有者”是一个意见摇摆不定的民主组织（当“占领者”是民主社会，它的态度会被动摇），罪犯团体和目标团体存在一个选择上的分歧。在他的观点中，宗教信仰的不同助长了自杀袭击发生的可能性，但是它们不是主要原因。Nichole Argo来自Massachusetts技术学院的研究人员，也对宗教因素有限的观点持赞同态度。真正起决定价值的是叛乱问题提供者的背景，一个自毁者的同辈们将视他们为英雄。但宗教教化同样不是一个大的因素，Ms Argo坚持道。仅仅一小部分的巴基斯坦和印度尼西亚的强硬份子从事暴力活动。物资的剥夺同样不是决定性的，许多自杀性爆炸者都来自于舒适的环境。
Randall Collins, of the University of Pennsylvania, has made a good point about middle-class bombers: to do
their job, human bombs need middle-class virtues like politeness and discretion—till the very moment of
self-annihilation
宾夕法尼亚大学的Randall Collins提出了一个很好的观点关于中产阶级爆炸者，为了完成他们的工作，人肉炸弹一直要具备中产阶级的品德像优雅和判断力，直到他自我毁灭的那一刻。

China's weather
中国的天气
Frozen assets
资产冻结
Feb 7th 2008 | NANCHANG
From The Economist print edition
来自《经济学人》印刷版

因本人翻译水平有限，疏漏错误在所难免，如有不解之处，请参照原文。-From QQK的空间
So long as people criticise the weather, the government can weather the criticism
AFTER a week of anguish, Liu Xiaoqiang could heave a sigh of relief. So too, perhaps, could China's
government. By the eve of the lunar new year holiday, unusually severe winter weather and crippling
transport bottlenecks had eased. Power cuts and food shortages persisted in many parts of southern
China. But the worst appeared to be over.
人们已经抱怨天气太长时间了，政府能够经受
经历了一周的苦恼，Liu Xiaoqiang终于能松一口气了。也许中国政府也只能如此了。在阴历年假的前夕，异乎寻常的冰雪天气和临近极限的运输瓶颈终于得到缓解了。能源的隔断和食品的短缺依然存在于南方的许多地区。但是最糟糕的似乎已经过去了。
For Mr Liu, a migrant from rural Anhui who has spent the past year as a
building worker in Nanchang, victory came on February 5th, when he
finally secured a train ticket home. For the previous week he had spent the
days battling crowds in the cold, damp and dirt of Nanchang's station.
Nights were passed in a shabby room nearby. He felt lucky to find it, but it
cost hundreds of unbudgeted yuan—and he earns just 1,000 yuan ($139) a
month.
Mr Liu是一名已经在南昌做了一年建筑工人的旅客，他终于在2月5日等到了胜利，拿到了回家的火车票。在前一个星期里，他花了好几天的时间在寒冷潮湿肮脏的南昌站排队。夜晚在附近一个破旧的小房子里度过。他认为能找到那样一件房子是幸运的，但这花去了他好几百元的预算——他的月工资仅仅只有一千元（合139美元）。
A heavy police presence at Nanchang's station (and the minefield of human
excrement on the pavements just outside) attest to how fraught things
have been. In southern and central China, snow, ice and freezing rain left
millions stranded on the roads or at railway stations. Fallen transmission
lines, frozen equipment and coal shortages caused power cuts across 17
provinces; at least 11 electricians died making repairs. In some places
water supplies have failed, and food has run short. Almost everywhere
food prices have risen.
大量的警员出现在南昌站证明了人是多么的满（那些人们的排泄物就被堆放在站外）。在中国的中部和南部，冰雪和冻雨造成了数以万记汽车站和火车站的阻塞。被阻断的运输线路，抗寒物资及煤的短缺造成了17省的能源中断，至少11名电力工人在抢修过程中丧失了生命。在一些地区，水的供应也中断了，食品也面临短缺。几乎所有地方的食品价格都涨了。
For a government that bases its claim to legitimacy on its competence and
ability to guarantee the supply of basic necessities, all of this might seem
threatening. Yet like many others, Mr Liu blames what he calls “the worst
weather in decades”, rather than the authorities.
政府基于要求在能力范围内提供基础的必需品，一切看上去都那么危险。不想许多其它的人，Mr Liu更多的抱怨他所称之的“十年不遇的坏天气”，而不是管理机构。
Not everyone is happy to leave it at that. The disgruntled probably include
the millions still suffering from shortages of power and water, and those who have reluctantly heeded the
government's call to scrap their cherished holiday visit home.
并非每个人都认为这样离开是值得高兴的。不满可能包括还有数百万人仍然在遭受能源和水的短缺，以及勉强相应政府号召放弃在假期回家。
Government leaders have dispatched army and police forces to keep order and work crews to get things
moving again. They have also gone out of their way to express concern and, in the familiar ringing idiom
of martial mass-mobilisation propaganda, show they have taken charge. Wen Jiabao, the prime minister,
visited stations in three provinces, offering sympathy and vague apologies for unspecified failures.
President Hu Jintao went down a coalmine to inspire miners to step up their output. On February 2nd Wu
Yi, a deputy prime minister, popped up at Nanchang station, urging local officials to “be fully aware of the
arduousness and gravity of the snow-havoc battle”.
政府领导已经派遣军队和警力维持次序，并让一切重新运转。他们同样去到偏远地区，在熟悉的充满俗语的军事动员中，显示了他们的负责任。温家宝总理视察了三个省的数个车站，表示同情并为一些未指明的错误含糊的表示道歉。
According to Fang Xiu'an, of the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association, which handles
marketing for coal producers, the authorities deserve high marks for responding to the crisis. They worked
quickly to increase coal production, to give deliveries of coal priority over other cargoes, and to start fixing
transport and power disruptions.
依照操纵煤市场生产的中国煤运输和分配委员会的Fang Xiu'an的说法，管理机构对灾难的回应应当给予高度评价。他们很快的提高了煤的产量，给了煤运输相对于其他货物更高的优先权，并且开始填补运输和能源的中断。
But he also faults bureaucrats in the coal and power industries.
Power plants that normally stock 18-20 days' worth of coal had
in some cases run their reserves down to as little as three days'
worth. Planners, says Mr Fang, should have been more alert to
warning signs that these dangerously low stockpiles made China
vulnerable. The causes of the supply crunch are clear enough.
但他同样因在能源和煤工业因官僚主意而犯错。电厂的正常库存应当保持有18-20天的用煤量，但出于某些原因使得它们的存量低到仅能供三天使用。规划者应当对这次警报提起警惕，因为这样的低库存让中国变得脆弱。导致这次供应危机的原因已经足够清楚。
Since 2005 the government has ordered thousands of unsafe
AP And the trains don't run on time and poorly managed coalmines to shut down, reducing
production. Lower output, together with unusually cold weather,
forced up prices. From December to January, the price of
premium coal rose by 13%, from 575 yuan a tonne to 650 yuan.
But electricity prices are fixed, and, unable to pass on costs,
power producers had been waiting for seasonal price cuts in
March before stocking up.
直至2005年，政府已经规范了数千个不安全的管理程序。列车不按时运转和煤矿缺乏管理的现象已经被制止。出口的降低，合并寒冷的天气，被迫上涨的物价。从十二月到一月，特级煤的价格已经上涨了13%，从575元每吨上涨到650元每吨。但是电的价格是固定的，不能有效的传递消耗。电力生产者在储备之前不得不等待三月份的季节性价格下降。
Equally clear is the reasoning behind these policies. Rising
inflation has unnerved citizens and officials alike, and powerprice
controls are one way to stem it. Lax mining standards,
meanwhile, have led to a gruesome string of coalmine accidents
and a scandalous yearly toll of thousands of dead miners. The
government has justifiably been under pressure to act.
同样清楚的是这些政策后面的原因。不断增长的通货膨胀已经让官员和民众气馁，能源价格的控制是唯一能够阻止这一低调情绪的方法。同时，不严格的采矿标准已经导致一连串可怕矿难的发生，并且令人震惊的，每年有数千名矿工死亡。政府有理由在压力下实施行动。
The transport crisis has highlighted the fragility of China's tightly
strung infrastructure, as well as the conflicting pressures facing
policymakers as they try to keep the economy growing. Yet the overall economic impact of the weather
crisis, like the political fallout, may be limited. Officials have reported direct economic losses of 54 billion
yuan in damage to buildings and crops, a figure that is bound to rise. But government economists insist
that the long-term effects will be mild. Many foreign analysts agree that they will, as one puts it, “vanish
with the melting snow”. Jonathan Anderson, an economist in Hong Kong for UBS, an investment bank,
calls it a “very temporary, short-term shock” and sees no cause yet to revise his growth forecast for
China's economy.
这次运输危机已经为中国暴露出的基础结构脆弱亮起了红灯，这又给予了试图保持经济增长的政策制定者们不相一致的压力。现在全部因天气危机带来的经济冲击，象行政力被减弱，可能已经得到了控制。许多国外的分析家认同他们可以，就像有一个人说那样“一切随着冰雪消融而消失”。Jonathan Anderson香港一位为投资银行UBS工作的经济学家，称之为“十分暂时，短期的冲击”，并称不影响他对中国经济增长的预测。
Even if they seem to have weathered this storm, China's leaders must be pondering the lessons it offers.
The government may not have all that long to make good on its earnest promises to do better in future.
In under two weeks, for example, Mr Liu will be trying to buy a ticket back to his job in Nanchang.
尽管他们已经经历了这次风暴，中国的领导人必须反思本次的教训。政府似乎没有为他们承诺的在经来做的更好投入全部的热情。在接下来的两个星期里，举例说，Mr将会试着买张票重回他在南昌的工作。

America's election
Half-way there

因水平有限，这篇翻译存在许多问题，不解之处，请自己参照英文。
Feb 7th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The Republicans, at least, seem to have found a decent candidate
共和党似乎已经找到了一个正派的领导人。
WINSTON CHURCHILL, that famous half-American, once said that his mother's countrymen could always
be counted on to do the right thing, after exhausting the available alternatives. His words would apply
well to the Republican Party just now. Having lengthily lionised “America's mayor”, Rudy Giuliani, looked
longingly at Reagan-lite Fred Thompson, flirted with millionaire Mitt Romney and sung along with
preacherman Mike Huckabee, the party's voters have sensibly plumped for John McCain, the only
Republican whom pollsters give a chance of keeping the White House out of Democratic hands (see
article). It is possible—just—to imagine Mr McCain failing to carry the nomination after Super Tuesday,
which saw him win three times as many delegates as his nearest rival, Mr Romney, who suspended his
campaign. But that would now require spectacular intervention by the Almighty on behalf of the
admittedly pious Mr Huckabee.
温斯顿.丘吉尔，那个著名的半个美国人，曾经说过他母亲的同胞们在经历一场疲惫不堪的有用选举后总能去做正确的事情。他的言论可以适用于现在的共和党。在相当长时间内被奉为“美国市长”的Rudy Giuliani，看上去十分的渴望，他在Reagan-lite Fred Thompson，十分轻率的和百万富翁Mitt Romney呆在一起，并且与传教士Mike Huckabee一同在歌咏会上领唱。政党的投票者已经明显的将支持转到John McCain，这个民调显示唯一能将白宫从民主党手中夺回的人身上。有可能，想象一下Mr McCain在超级星期二后没有得到委任，那些看着他胜利三次的代表们甚至他那暂停挑战的亲近对手Mr Romney。但是这需要来自虔诚到无可否认的Mr Huckabee的代表Almighty的强烈干涉。
Given George Bush's failings, the Republicans face an uphill challenge, but they have given themselves a
chance. Mr McCain is a man of courage. He showed it in Vietnam, while Mr Bush and Bill Clinton found
themselves other occupations; as a prisoner-of-war, he refused to be released without his comrades even
though he had already been tortured for a year, so earning four more years of agony. He has been brave
politically, too. It takes an exceptional individual to court the hatred of his own party rather than
compromise on issues he believes in, such as the need for immigration reform, the wrongness of torture
under any circumstances or the need to tackle global warming. Should Mr McCain become president, the
world will see an American with different views from those it has sadly learned to expect from
Republicans recently.
乔治 布什已有的失败，使得现在的共和党面临着越来越大的挑战，但同时他们也给了自己一个机会。Mr McCain是一个有勇气的人，他在越南已经展示了这一点。当布什和克林顿早已开脱，作为一名战俘，尽管他已经经历了一年的严刑拷打，但他拒绝同他的战友们一起被释放，进而有遭受了近四年的痛苦。他在政治上同样是勇敢的。这真是一个特例啊，象在移民改革的必要性，任何情况下的严刑拷打的错误性，以及制止全球变暖的问题上，他宁可给自己招来党内的憎恨也不愿意向自己所坚信的观点妥协。Mr McCain 当选总统，世界将看以不同的眼光看待对寄希望于共和党已经表示沮丧的美国。
Those atypical positions, and his willingness to team up with Democrats in the Senate, may have earned
Mr McCain the support of many of the independent voters who will be crucial to Republican chances in
the general election. But it would be wrong to think the senator from Arizona is simply pandering to
them. On a host of other issues, he has risked alienating the centre. He is a passionate believer in free
trade (which endears him to this newspaper, at least), and he was a supporter of the “surge” in Iraq
when all Democrats, most independents and a fair few Republicans thought the best thing to do was for
America to leave. Some of these beliefs, alas, will surely hurt him, but it is much to his credit that when
advisers urged him to moderate them he angrily refused.
那些不显著的举动，及他自发的在上议院与共和党合作，已经赢得了许多将成为共和党在大选中作用至关重要的独立投票者的支持。但是就此认为来自亚利桑那州的议员会简单的被它们所吸引将是错误的。在大量其他的论点上，他冒着偏离中央的危险。在自由贸易上他是个充满热情的信仰者（这使得他饱受我们经济学人的钟爱），并且他还是在伊拉克采取“激进”行动的支持者，当所有的民主党人，绝大多数的独立人士及小部分公正的共和党人都认为最好的举措就是从伊拉克退兵。哎，这些观点当然会对他有所损害，但是这也助长了他的信誉度，当顾问们希望他表示妥协的时，他气愤的拒绝了。
A few chinks in the armour
装甲上的一些小裂口
Illustration by Kevin Kallaugher
——引自Kevin Kallaugher
Mr McCain is certainly the right man for the Republicans, but we are not yet ready to endorse him for the
presidency. His age is one drawback: at 72, he will, if elected, be the oldest president ever to take office
(though Ronald Reagan was older when he was re-elected in 1984). His health has not been perfect—
though his 96-year-old mother looks reassuringly sprightly—and his choice of a running-mate is therefore
a subject of more than the usual concern. One danger is that he might feel constrained to select Mr
Huckabee, who won five southern states this week and appeals to the evangelical Christians who mistrust
Mr McCain. Likeable though he is, Mr Huckabee is tainted by an anti-business strain of populism and a
literalist faith that sometimes blinds him to basic science. The possibility of a Huckabee presidency would
give many independent voters (and this newspaper) pause.
Mr McCain当然是共和党的正确人选，但是我们不能已经认可他的任期。他的年龄是一大障碍，72岁，如果当选，将是有史以来最老的总统（尽管里根在1984年连任的时候要更老些）。他的健康状况不是那么好-尽管他那96岁的妈妈看起来还是那么轻快而结实-并且他对竞选伙伴的将投入更多的关注。一个危险是，他可能觉得选择本周内已经赢得五个南部州并且呼吁基督福音对他不太信任的Mr Huckabee让他感觉不自在。尽管Mr Huckabee是这样可爱的，但他也因遭受来自人民党主义反商业联盟的压力而染上污点，而且拘泥于信仰也让他在一些时候忽视基础科学。Huckabee就任的可能将终止于大量的独立投票人（包括本刊）。
Mr McCain's other problem is his temperament. He has not been mellowed by having had to run a state—
a shortcoming he shares with his Democratic rivals, but still a disadvantage. The flip-side of his courage
is a short temper. There have been too many blow-ups with fellow senators. At a time when America
needs to rebuild its relationship with the rest of the world, a prickly patriot who supported the Iraq war
(though he was the first to call for Donald Rumsfeld's head after things started to go wrong) and who has
been known to sing “Bomb, bomb, bomb; bomb, bomb Iran” to the tune of “Barbara Ann” could be
improved on from a diplomatic point of view.
Mr McCain的另一个问题是他的性情。对于运作一个政府他还显得不那么成熟-这是他相对他的民主党对手来说的短处，同时也是个缺点。和他的勇气相对的是他粗暴的脾气。这一点被和他共事的其它议员过度的放大了。一次，美国希望重建它和世界其它国家的关系，一个支持伊拉克战争的印模仿“Barbara Ann”的唱腔歌唱“Bomb, bomb, bomb; bomb, bomb Iran” 的有刺爱国者可能会改进外交上的观点。
Don't give up on the Democrats
不要在民主党面前放弃
So a Democrat may yet impress us more, but first they must put their own house in order. Luckily for Mr
McCain, that will be a while coming—and in the meantime he can start raising money for the generalelection
campaign. Most analysts argue that Barack Obama would have a better chance against Mr
McCain than Hillary Clinton would. The young black senator is better at appealing to the centrist voters
who like Mr McCain; and the prospect of another Clinton co-presidency would do much to compel
Republican right-wingers to get behind a man they think is not a true conservative.
一个民主党人可能使我们留下了更深刻的印象，但他们首先要做的是把自己的房子整清楚。幸运的是，对于Mr McCain来说-？？？  与此同时他开始为竞选筹集资金。许多分析家认为Barack Obama相对于Hillary Clinton 对抗Mr McCain似乎更有胜算。这个年轻的黑人议员对于像Mr McCain那样的中间派议员看来似乎更有魅力。并且另一个类似于克林顿的总统，他将迫使共和党的右翼份子躲藏在他这样一个不是真正保守的人后面。
That calculation ought to help Mr Obama in the weeks to come after a Super Tuesday that was, on the
Democratic side, a dead heat. Another 22 states, including big ones like Texas and Ohio, have still to
vote in primaries, and half the delegates have yet to be chosen. Mr Obama will also gain an edge from
the return to a battle that is fought state by state, since this plays to his superior abilities at firing up big
crowds. But the formidable Clinton machine grinds on, and the fact that she won in most of the big states
that were up for grabs on Super Tuesday has buoyed her team no end. Mrs Clinton's solid support among
Hispanics will help a lot in Texas, though at the cost of keeping race as a live, and nasty, issue on the
hustings. On the other hand, this week Mr Obama won in more states and may have secured one or two
more delegates as well, so he can make a strong claim to have superior momentum.
这样的算计在在超级星期二后紧接几周内应该对Mr Obama帮助颇多，但在民主党方面，是冷却的热情。另外的22个州，包括两个大的德克萨斯和俄亥俄，仍然在进行初选,一半的代表还没有被选出来。Mr Obama同样将要面临州与州之间斗争的边缘？？。这样的情形来源于点燃群众激情的高超本领。但是可怕的克林顿机器坚定无疑的向前开进，事实是她已经赢取了大部分大洲的支持星期二的公投将非常支持她的团队。Mrs Clinton来自西班牙坚固的支持将帮助她在得克萨斯赢得许多帮助，虽然持续竞争的花费是一个活生生的肮脏事实。在另一方面，本周Mr Obama在更多的几个州取得了胜利并且可能已经受到了一至两个代表的保护，所以他将更有动力。
The fight will be long and mucky, but the Democrats may yet emerge sharpened by the contest. Both Mrs
Clinton and Mr Obama have the necessary attributes to take on Mr McCain: they are two formidable
campaigners who have offered detailed and generally intelligent policy proposals and have been forced to
work exceptionally hard for their votes.
这场竞争将冗长而肮脏，但是民主党的竞争并没有加剧。无论是Mr Obama还是Mrs Clinton都有必要去接纳Mr McCain，他们是两个同样强大，都以提出详细理智仿真假设，并且将为他们的竞选竭尽全力的竞争者。
So Mr McCain is still no more than half-way to the White House. But the fact that the Republicans seem
to have learnt from their mistakes enough to line up behind a credible candidate augurs well for their
country—and for the world.
所以说Mr McCain仅仅是在通往白宫的路上做着垒间停留，事实是共和党应当会从他们的错误中吸取足够的教训要在推举一个可信的候选者上达成一致，不仅仅为了这个国家，也为了这个世界。

Samsung
Losing its shine
Feb 7th 2008 | SEOUL
From The Economist print edition
South Korea's biggest conglomerate has handled a series of crises badly
韩国最大的集团正面临着一系列严重的危机。
THE lunar new year, celebrated this week, is usually a time when those employed at South Korea's familyowned
conglomerates, or chaebols, enjoy a few days off. But there is little to celebrate for executives at
Samsung, the biggest and best-known chaebol, which has lately been hit by an investigation into alleged
corruption, an oil spill and an adverse court ruling relating to a failed subsidiary.
在本周举行庆祝活动的阴历新年，对受雇佣为韩国最大家族集团工作的员工来说应当是一段愉快的日子。但是对于三星的管理者来说没什么可值得庆祝的，这个最大最为知名的集团企业，最近正在面临一次严峻的腐败调查,以及一次油品泄漏和以此法院对其子公司的不利判决。
Samsung's problems started in November when Kim Yong-chul, formerly its top legal executive, alleged
that the group maintained slush funds with which to bribe politicians, judges and the press, and that it
had committed accounting fraud to ensure that the group remained in the hands of its chairman, Lee Kunhee,
and his family. Samsung insists that Mr Kim's accusations are groundless. An official investigator,
Cho Joon-woong, began looking into his allegations in January.
三星的问题开始于十一月，当Kim Yong-chul,三星从前的合法执行长官，声称这个集体始终建立着一个用于非法目的的基金（slush fund）用作贿赂政客，法官和新闻界，制造假的会计结果以保证集团的所有权维持在集团主席Lee Kunhee和他的家族手中。三星坚持说其前执行官Kim的控告是没有依据的。官方调查人Cho Joon-wong在一月开始了他的申诉。
There is a widespread belief that Samsung, whose sales are equivalent to some 20% of South Korea's
GDP, is simply too powerful to be brought to heel by Mr Cho's inquiry. Many South Koreans were cynical
about the well-publicised searches carried out at Mr Lee's home and the offices of other executives, noting
that they took place weeks after the original allegations.
有这样一个广为认知的看法，三星的营业额占据了韩国20%的GDP增长值。很显然这一看法过于有威力以至于阻碍到Mr Cho的调查。很多韩国人对于对Mr Lee的家以及其他执行官的办公室广为宣传的调查取证在最初申述后的几星期仍没有拿出一点结果而感到讽刺。
But the cynics who forecast business as usual for the chaebol were proved wrong in December, when a
barge operated by Samsung Heavy Industries, a subsidiary, broke free from its tow lines in heavy weather
and slammed into an oil tanker. More than 78,000 barrels of oil leaked out, South Korea's worst spill.
Images of dead, oil-covered birds, devastated fishing grounds and despairing people who relied on the
ocean for their livelihoods appeared on television day after day. In January thousands of people from the
affected region converged on Samsung's headquarters in Seoul and threw oil-stained fish and oysters at
the building. At another protest, the owner of a raw-fish restaurant killed himself by drinking agricultural
chemicals and setting himself on fire.
但是那些认为因为韩国财团（chaebol）支持商业仍将正常运作的冷嘲热讽者在十二月被证明是错的。当三星旗下子公司三星重工所拥有的一艘油轮，在一次恶劣的天气里因舢板脱落造成了燃油泄露。大约78000桶燃油泄露，这是韩国历史上最大的燃油泄露事件。想象一下那些因沾染燃油而死的鸟们，被毁掉的渔场，那些日复一日守在电视机前以海为生的绝望人们吧。在一月，数千名来自受影响区域的群众聚集在三星在首尔的总部，向建筑扔掷被燃油污染的鱼和牡蛎。在另一起抗议中，一位生鱼饭馆的老板喝农药自杀后自焚。
In a culture where swift acknowledgment of wrongdoing is expected, Samsung was seen to be dragging its
feet. It took a month and a half to apologise for its part in the oil spill. Samsung says it delayed its
apology because the accident's cause was unclear and it was not entirely to blame, though the owner and
operator of the tanker have denied any wrongdoing. On January 21st the courts indicted Samsung Heavy
Industries and the owner of the tanker on charges relating to the spill.
在传统中有错就认是大家所期望的，但三星在这一点上似乎在拖后腿。三星在历经一个半月后才对燃油泄露事件中所付的责任表示道歉。三星声称它拖延道歉是因为事故的原因还并不清楚，它并不该被完完全全的责备，因为油轮的所有者和操作者在事件中并没有什么过错。在1月21日，法院对三星重工和油轮拥有者提起指控。
Ten days later a court ruled against Samsung and Mr Lee in South Korea's biggest civil lawsuit. It ordered
them to repay 3.15 trillion won ($2.7 billion) to the creditors of Samsung Motors, a subsidiary which went
bust in 1999. Mr Lee had pledged shares in Samsung Life Insurance to creditors, promising a payout when
it went public—which has yet to happen.
十天后，在这场韩国最大的民事诉讼中法庭裁定三星和所有者Mr Lee败诉。它们被要求偿还于99年破产的公司三星动力债权人约2.7亿美元赔款。Mr Lee已经将三星人生保险的部分股份抵押给债权人，并承诺在此事对外公布时支付。
Given all these problems, you might expect contrition from Samsung executives. But when Mr Cho asked
several Samsung executives to come to his office they said they were too busy, provoking further public
outrage. Samsung now acknowledges that it has an image problem. “We are concerned about the
negative impact on the Samsung brand,” says a spokesman. But in the eyes of South Koreans, the
chaebol whose name means “three stars” has already lost its shine.
面对所有这些问题，你可能期望三星的管理层们会有所悔改。但当Mr Cho要求几位三星管理者去到他的办公室接受询问，他们都以太忙为由回绝，这激起了公众进一步的愤怒。三星现在承认它们面临着一项想象中的问题，“我们正为三星的品牌受到的质疑而感到担心”一位发言人这样说道。但是在韩国人民的眼中，那个名字叫做”三颗星“的大型财团企业已经失去了它的光辉。

Microsoft v Google
When clouds collide
Feb 7th 2008
From The Economist print edition

微软对雅虎的出价不仅仅是关于线上广告业务。两块云的碰撞本是一件温和的事情，除非，是发生在在高科技产业的数字天空里。但是这样一个虚拟的碰撞，在你试图去理解为什么微软，这个世界上最大的软件公司为雅虎，一个处于危难中的在线巨头，开出44.6亿元的价格时成为意识中的一个绝佳反映。当计算机产业向在线方向发展，权利和金钱将逐渐地变成被评论家们称之的庞大的“计算机云”，操纵着整个英特网。雅虎的交易目的在于进一步膨胀微软这朵大云，使得他们至少能够跟他们最为危险的对手谷歌相比拟。
可以肯定的是，这将是英特网产业内自2000年AOL与Time Warner那次注定不幸的联合那次久远交易后的最大一次合并。就如经济学人所报道的，雅虎已经就议价作出了官方回应，而不说仍在考虑。事实上，它的管理层早先就曾拒绝过微软的提议，声称已经考虑过二选一的状况：被接收，或是出售一些部门甚至与谷歌达成一项联盟。一个能与之竞争的报价也是能被接受的，但是目前为止还没有人参与到这场与财大气粗的微软竞价的竞争中来。微软提供给雅虎每股31美元的价格，这个价格是微软提出收购价之前雅虎收盘价外附带62%的额外价格而得到的。此后将不可避免的面临的是一次垄断评估。如果微软设法吞下雅虎，那么它将迎来一次严重的消化不良，就像AOL和Time Warner（时代华纳）之间发生的那样。（本周，时代华纳的新总裁，Jeff Bewkes，说道他计划收缩AOL的网上商务）微软将不得不联合或者去除它与雅虎之间重叠的产品和服务。这也将会是一个文化问题。雅虎是一家在线媒体公司骄傲于它的娱乐风气，并且利用开源技术建立了自己的商务，于此同时微软吸引了许多性情固执的怪人从软件中获取利润。所以说联合了两家公司的基础技术，将会为未来省下钱来，这真是个狡猾的主意。
微软明白这一切，它仍然想买雅虎的事实相当于承认它需要一些帮助才能去赶超谷歌。后者因它的搜索引擎而闻名，但它同样是头一家通过提供在线服务联系起软件，硬件，数据和用户，并以此建立起一个庞大的计算机帝国。在谷歌大量的数据中心里，计算机就像一个个发电站，几十万台机器协同运作就好像一台一样。谷歌从网络和用户那里收集了大量的数据。并且它已经聘请了一大批杰出的工程师利用这些资源开发新的服务。
最重要的是，谷歌已经找出了一条盈利之道。通过推广它的服务，公司创造出了极大的广告空间，大部分源于一个依附在用户搜索结果旁的一个小小的文本框。这些是被拍卖的，竞拍者仅仅在用户点击了广告的情况下才像谷歌付款。
——来自Claudio Munoz的描述

谷歌已经创造一个良性的循环。作为最大的搜索引擎，谷歌能吸引到更多的广告客户，所以能提供更加精准的广告服务。这使得他们能吸引更多的用户，同时广告客户也进一步增加，以此循环。
在最近几年里，微软力图建立另一个可与谷歌比拟的搜索领域。它在基础的建立上投入了大量的资金，已经在世界各地建立起了自己的数据中心。它也努力尝试赶上谷歌的服务，特别是在网络搜索方面。微软已经在屏幕广告？？方面有了长足的进步，这是整个以搜索为基础的广告市场里的一个小的部分，微软希望这项业务能够快速发展。去年五月，就在谷歌买下屏幕广告的领头公司DoubleClick后，微软买下了在线广告代理商aQuantive。
然而，现在为之这一举动还没有显现出什么成效。在搜索领域，微软的全球市场在07年11份时仅占有2.9%的份额，与comScore公司相当，相比较之下谷歌占有62.4%的份额（雅虎12.8%）。微软的在线业务还没有开始盈利。最使公司管理者担忧的是谷歌已经在在线广告领域遥遥领先，并且有可能垄断这个决定性的市场，特别是当它与DoubleClick融合后。经过微软猛烈并带有恶意的游说，美国的管理者已经同意了微软的收购计划，他们的欧洲同盟们可能也在不久后表示认可。
微软提出的谷歌将因垄断而获利，它扮演了对抗软件巨头成功阻止反垄断的重要角色，然而极具讽刺的是这样的事实长期的存在于微软自身的操作系统上，没有一家公司能与微软的操作系统相抗衡。到目前为止，已经有如此多的软件被写成在Windows下运行，这导致有竞争力的操作系统很难进入这个市场。类似的，如果太多的出版人和广告客户采取谷歌的在线广告平台，竞争者将不能“可靠的与之竞争？？”，在一份微软的内部文件中这样写道。
使DoubleClick摆脱谷歌掌握的计划已经失败了，微软寄希望于雅虎能让它不致在这场竞争中落得个灰飞烟灭。如果微软成功了，那么互联网的天空之上将笼罩起微软之云，尽管它没有谷歌的云彩那么庞大。合并后的公司网页每月将吸引290万美国用户——比谷歌还多一点，来自另一家搜索公司尼尔森在线的统计。合并后的Microsoft-Yahoo! 将占有18%的搜索市场和30%的屏幕广告市场，来自投资银行Oppenheimer的数据。
这次合并将给微软在其他领域带来巨大的影响。首先是基于网络的电子邮件，合并后的业务将占据80%的美国市场。它相当于支配了实时消息领域。雅虎同样提供许多其他的业务，像Flicker，微软将控制世界上最大注册用户群——其价值等同于它开发新的服务。

虽然如此，这项交易对谷歌而言可能是件好事，至少在短期而言。谷歌一定会尝试诱惑雅虎最好的员工。整合将转移微软管理层的重心并且花去大量时间。谷歌已经组织了一次游说活动来阻止这次合并，声称此举将破环英特网领域的改革——不管是微软还是雅虎近期内都没有做出任何革新。事实上，谷歌越是抱怨改革，而不是着手去做，越听起来像微软过去曾做过的。

Jan 31st 2008
From The Economist print edition

改革国际体制是一个令人心动的想法。但是理清国内的规章同样是重要的。GEORGE SOROS，一个拥有亿万资产的投资者，想要一个“新的行政长官”，一个国际的管理者来拯救“60年来最大的财政危机”。政客们躲在不远的后面。英国的Gordon Brown想要把IMF（国际货币基金组织）变成一个“预警机构”来阻止金融风暴的发生。法国的Nicolas Sarkozy（尼古拉斯。萨科奇）想强制给资本主义“下令”“因为有些时候有些事超出了控制”。在1月29日伦敦举办的一次高层会晤中，布朗，萨科奇以及一些欧洲政治巨头们共同要求银行提高透明度，并威胁建立新的规则除非信用评估机构改变他们的现有做法。

21世纪首个大的银行危机隆隆地向我们驶来，改革现有国际财政的呼声越来越高涨。因为资本市场的没有边界，政府修正草案和对市场的控制引发了大量的忧虑。国际金融在磋商中前进，而不能仅仅依靠Balkanised国内的疏忽。

这样的论调在曾经也被提到过。在十年以前，一次金融危机导致了从巴西到印度尼西亚市场被扫清的后果，同样的叫法——就像现在的声音一样——去重新规划世界金融市场的格局。一些老式的国际机构，像IMF，被认为是国际资本市场不合理的基础结构，可能会导致整体经济在几天内垮台。

一些伟大的提议正在激增。有些人希望IMF转化为能被最终依赖的国际领导人角色；另一些人希望废除它。有些人希望抑制国际资本的泛滥；另些人看到来自国外的能源市场银行正将一切向着更稳固的方向引导。近几年来，中央银行领导人和财政部长们的会议上已经将全球经济布局提上了他们的最高议程。

事实上，建议的结果是适度的。一些乐于助人的新团体被建立起来，像经济稳定论坛，一个来自财富和能源领域经济管理者的定期聚会，现在正在讨论如何从现实情景中吸取经验教训。IMF得到了新的工具和更多的专家来解决金融问题。新的关于宏观经济透明度和财政统计的标准已经被建立。但是仍缺少一个整体的系统重设解决国际资本泛滥与国家自订规则的共存。

——引自Claudio Munoz

将他们自己的财产规整好

在那些面临危机的国家里，一个巨大的改变正在到来。通过采取浮动汇率一个能保护他们对抗反复的经济体系在1990年末的风暴中心中显现成型，这使得银行系统更加健壮，外部的债务被重组，并且建立起巨大的外汇储备。这些国内的改革比之新的全球规则更为有效，一个成长的市场已经被建立——至少目前为止——能够更有弹性的对抗金融混乱。

这是政治家们应该留意的一课。一个有效的全球管理制度的改变在于，任何事，如果比十年前同期低。现在问题的起源并不在于能被ＩＭＦ摆布的发展中国家，而是一些更为富有的国家，特别是美国。美国有着不少独立，有自由意识的管理者和经济监督人。但美国的失败在于它试图把它高度分离的国家系统加载在几乎没有可能让其放弃实际权力的国际管理体系。

一个更加现实的目标是加强国家管理者之间的合作，并且鼓励他们在更多的领域采取公共标准。Ｂａｓｅｌ条约在资本适当性为银行资本上制定了一个公共的台阶，这就是一个国家规则怎样才能靠近国际规则的例子。Ｂａｓｅｌ委员会正确的看待为银行流动性而制定的规则。一个国际样板在其他的领域同样是有效的，比如说在评估混合债务的构成或是就信用代理系统最好尝试达成一致建议。

同样的，国家规则应当更加透明化。太多的监管人认为经济的不稳定在于国家内部团体之间，甚至某个大银行自身灾难引发的国际后果。

对于所有国际大公司的利益，虽然说最为重要的在这次危机中管理上的教训是由于内部的原因。美国在次贷监管中的失败被摆在了首位。在英国Northern Rock的倒闭同样极大的源于不适当的国家监管，一个过时的存款保险系统，英国财政制定者，金融服务权威，英格兰国家银行和国库之间的缺乏合作。如果任何政策制定者都去责备那么法国第二大银行Société Générale（应该是法国兴业银行）的灾难，那一定是法国人。

政客们与其常常为全球金融改革高唱挽歌，不如更多的面对自己国内的问题。如果十年前的教训有任何的启示的话，那将是国内经济体制改革的最伟大回归。

Jan 31st 2008
From The Economist print edition

伊朗的穆斯林领袖摆脱了核问题的麻烦，但仍存在可能将他们再次卷入。

WHO可能认为，一位由否认核灾难，在公共场合绞死青少年，用石刑处死妇女的领导人所统治的神权国家是不友好的，它可能导致美国和其欧洲同盟们的外交困境。但这恰恰是伊朗正在做的。之所这样做在很大程度上是因为美国间谍们一个不准确的目标，这帮间谍在无用的请报下导致了伊拉克战争。

不难假设，如果伊朗的决策者们拥有了炸弹的威胁，世界将陷于一片不愉快的惊讶。伊朗承诺说他们的核项目将完全用于和平用途，这一说法被广泛质疑。这就是中国，俄罗斯加入美英法德的联合国安全委员会试图阻止伊朗的铀浓缩试验。知道两个月之前，他们似乎准备采取一个第三方强硬制裁来解决伊朗问题。不过美国的情报机构又声称，直到现在历经五年费尽心机外交手段今天突然的得到了解决。

在伊拉克情报的大失败使得美国间谍们对于如何运用他们所得感到忧虑。这可能就是为什么他们和白宫会认为承认坦白是对的，在十一月的国家情报评估中，他们现在认为伊朗曾在五年前核研究方面的秘密工作。当事态发生，这样的说法并不为得到同样情报的以色列和其他美国同盟国们所相信。不过没关系，新闻头条足以让事实从外交的重重笼罩中显现出来。上个月在柏林，俄罗斯和中国明确了如何采取一个第三方解决方案，它将会是温和的谈判手腕，而不是另一轮的经济威胁。

与此同时，伊朗正试图在世界能源组织中寻找一个同盟。它的直接产生，源于一位诺贝尔和平奖获得者Mohamed ElBaradei，他曾经在华盛顿投身于一项运动通过帮助伊朗建立核设施挫败那些他所声称的“疯狂行径”，得到了一份干净的账单关于健康发展和避免另一次损失惨重战争的发生。

诚实的间谍，一个热爱和平的核问题监督人。会有什么错呢？答案是没有，除非间谍们的诚实被故意曲解，监督人没有履行好他们探查伊朗核活动的工作。

谢天谢地我们摆脱了麻烦

开心的像待在奶油堆里的猫，一队伊朗人员参加了一月举行的多哈世界经济论坛，他们要求一次双边的辩护。难道美国现在已经认可伊朗不再拥有武器项目了？为什么伊朗正要给ＩＡＥＡ的回答不是它需要“关闭”关于核问题的文件？这样的情况让伊朗的外交部长倍感欣慰，没有理由实施新的制裁了，甚至中国和俄罗斯所主张的温和政策也不需要了。

然而，伊朗的论调是荒谬的。尽管国家情报评估机构说伊朗在２００３年可能中断了其核弹头研究，但它同时也说伊朗事实确凿的在此后有重启了此项研究，没有人知道它到底进行了多久。联合国的制裁目的不在于伊朗有没有秘密制造核弹头，而是它公开的做了什么，像公然挑衅联合国决议进行铀浓缩。伊朗说，他们需要核能来发电。但核能同样可以用做炸弹燃料。一旦一个国家能够制造这样的燃料，那么将它变成核弹头只是一件很简单的事情。

有些国家，是的，它们被允许自由的进行铀浓缩活动。之所以剥夺伊朗的这项“权利”，是由于伊朗在历史上曾有过欺骗举动，这使得核原子能机构断定其无法履行核安全的承诺。所以Mr ElBaradei期望结束这场对峙，那么首先解释这许许多多没有回答的问题是必须的。依然没有解开的制裁，一个在白宫的破产者，将真的使伊朗空手而归。

难道真的这么悲惨，狡猾的伊朗会逃脱核不扩散协议的制约？朝鲜曾退出条约，并在２００６年进行了一次核弹测试。以色列从来没有加入过，低调地声称，它不会是头一个在所处区域内引进核武器的国家，但不会是第二个吗？印度和巴基斯坦，另外的两个旁观者，已经准备好了他们的材料。为什么要有更多的一方闯入扰乱这个聚会？

一个显而易见的危险是，一个核武装的伊朗，或者假设说一个有能力按照自己意愿武装自己的伊朗，可以引发一个连锁反应，使得沙特阿拉伯，埃及，叙利亚，甚至土耳其加速核进程。美国和苏维埃联盟，仅仅为他们自己的冷战担心，都有可能引发一场大灾难。增进中的中东对抗将引发级数增长的危机，一旦出现某个国家的误算，将引发可怕后果。

是时候采取一个Ｂ计划了

从某些方面来说，这样孤立的威胁证明在伊朗能够生产令人害怕的核武器之前打击其核计划是次要的。但是一旦伊朗倾向于拥有核武器，事先制止是一个更好的选择。布什已经声称美国将使以色列远离伤害。通过扩大它的保护伞，美国可能在中东区域处于临界点之前抑制区域各国之间的对抗。

更好的情况是，避免一个核化的伊朗。布什称外交手段仍能做到这一点。很难预测将怎么做。但是他有一项锦囊妙计：提供一次隆重的讨价还价解决美伊之间的分歧，从伊拉克的未来到中东的安全进程。迄今为止，伊拉克领导人通过指出其共同的枢纽伊朗首先暂停它的铀浓缩活动，表示已经接受美国的协商建议“在任何时候，在任何地点”关于“任何事情”。不可思议的是，对美国来说最好的方式向伊朗统治者施压就是让那个领导人下台。

这似乎需要一个时限不然伊朗可以轻易地在不经意之间富裕起来，就像得到世界的恩赐祝福一样。同样的俄罗斯和中国需要一个协议采取更严厉的制裁来帮助集中观点。伊朗领导人可能仍然会说不。但什叶派领导人有必要向伊朗大众解释为什么他们要付出高昂的代价为了维持一个信念不进行谈话放弃当前的繁荣，并使用多余的技术来创造使灯亮起来的能源。如果伊朗领导人不能被劝服，那么他们可能因他们的核弹计划而陷入窘境。